Predicting Gentrification in the Bay Area

3 09 2015
Table showing the categories used to map the stages of displacement and gentrification in the Bay Area.

Table showing the categories used to map the stages of displacement and gentrification in the Bay Area.

Some of the most promising research to come out of the Bay Area HUD Grant Process that CCHO was a part of (also known as the “Regional Prosperity Plan”) is a recently-released study by UC Berkeley’s Urban Displacement Project.  Using data on housing, income, and demographics, researchers created a Regional Early Warning System for Displacement as a way to better understand the stages of gentrification and displacement and to help predict which parts of the Bay Area may be impacted next.

Check out the Urban Displacement Project’s website to see their maps of transformation in the Bay Area, or read the full study here.

The big takeaways?  Gentrification and displacement exist on a spectrum and are far more widespread than we generally imagine, with nearly half of Bay Area census tracts at some stage of displacement. And based on the project’s predictions, the transformation of the Bay Area is far from over, with more tracts at risk of future displacement than are currently experiencing it.  In other words, we need to step up our efforts to stabilize communities, and fast.

The study was recently featured in a San Francisco Business Times article by reporter Cory Weinberg, which highlighted some of the neighborhoods at risk of displacement (read the full article here).  It was also discussed on KQED’s Forum in an interview with project director Miriam Zuk (listen here).

 

 

 


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